Four in Ten Girls Born This Year Will Live To Be 100 But They'll Have More Ill Health in Old Age

This is up 13 per cent of girls born in 1951 who are expected to reach this milestone, and scientists say there is no sign the trend will end any time soon. By 2060 they estimate there will be around half a million centenarians living in Britain, and 60 per cent of girls born that year can be expected to receive a birthday card from the monarch.

John Appleby, chief economist at the King's Fund think tank, revealed the predictions in an article published in the British Medical Journal.  He said the rise in life expectancy revealed by the Office for National Statistics mirrors worldwide trends, apart from notable exceptions including Zimbabwe and the Ukraine.   He attributed it to the fact that people are dying at older ages as they are more likely to survive childhood thanks to better education and improved healthcare. The trend has certainly put pressure on Royal resources. When the tradition of sending a telegram from the monarch to all new centenarians began in 1917, King George V dispatched 24 celebratory messages. By 1952, the number had increased ten-fold and by 2011 it had increased to nearly 10,000.

Mr Appleby warns living longer can bring its own problems, with more years of disability.  While life expectancy for women has risen by 4.6 per cent since 1990, healthy life expectancy has risen by only 3 per cent.  Mr Appleby writes: ‘Living longer is a good thing but not much fun if those extra years are lived in pain and discomfort.  ‘How healthy humans will be in the future is an open question, but historically at least, previous gains in healthy life expectancy have more to do with reductions in mortality than reductions in years lived in disability.’

In Europe as a whole, the proportion of people aged over 65 is predicted to hit 40 per cent by 2030 Mr Appleby questions whether the world can support ageing populations. He writes: ‘Is there a cloud to this silver lining? As more and more people live to older ages what will happen to the world’s population? Could we find our aged selves scrabbling for resources as the world’s population explodes?’  The economist says this is unlikely because population growth will slow over the coming decades.

Question: John Appleby, chief economist at the King's Fund thinktank, writing in the British Medical Journal, asks: 'Where will it all end?'  He adds: ‘As life expectancy improves, people – as we know from the history of industrialised nations – adjust their family to the point where populations in aggregate more or less hit the replacement rate, where births equal deaths. So, until the next set of population predictions, no need to panic.’

Pensions minister in the UK Steve Webb said earlier this month that rising life expectancy meant a higher retirement age was essential.  ‘If people are going to live on average to late 80s and beyond, retiring in late 50s is just never going to make the sums add up,’ he said.  He suggested further changes were in store for younger generations. ‘If someone tells a 30-year-old what their state pension age is going to be, they are lying,’ he added.